Schwartzel finds himself alone in front at Doral

Golf Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - South Africa's Charl Schwartzel posted a brilliant, bogey-free, five-under 67 on Thursday to take the first-round lead of the WGC-CA Championship.

Schwartzel braved tough, windy conditions at the TPC Blue Monster at Doral for the first-round advantage, when every other leader got tripped up by the famed Blue Monster 18th hole.

First up was Robert Allenby, who reached eight-under, but bogeyed three in a row from the 15th. At the last, Allenby found a greenside bunker and nearly blasted his ball into the water. He couldn't get up and down for par and walked off with a 68.

"When you come from eight-under and you finish up at four (under par), you look at it and go, wow, you really messed that up," Allenby said. "They are not easy holes."

Next was Vijay Singh.

The Fijian was alone in the lead at six-under par after a great approach at 17 left him a tap-in birdie. Singh drove into the water at 18, took a drop, missed the green with his third, chipped to 16 feet, missed the bogey putt and settled for a double-bogey and a round of 68.

Francesco Molinari was tied for first at five-under, but, like Singh, drove into the drink on the left. He missed the green with his third and landed his fourth 16 feet from the hole. Molinari's putt stayed above ground and he made double for a round of 69.

The final leader who fell victim to the Blue Monster was Ernie Els.

The three-time major winner was five-under, but avoided the water off the tee, only to land in the right rough by the trees. Els' second trickled into the water and after a drop, he pitched to five feet and made the putt for bogey.

"You can't afford to get it anywhere near the water," acknowledged Els. "It's a very, very difficult hole."

To tally it up, Allenby, Els and Singh are tied for second at four-under 68. Molinari heads a group of John Senden, Soren Hansen, J.B. Holmes, Paul Casey and FedEx Cup leader Dustin Johnson in a share of fifth at three-under 69.

That left Schwartzel the sole survivor.

Perhaps he was aided by the fact that he started on the 10th tee Thursday and finished his round at the par-three ninth.

"There's so much trouble out there, especially with this type of wind." said Schwartzel. "The big achievement for me today was not making any bogeys. That kept the scorecard very clean."

Schwartzel parred the 10th on Thursday, then rattled off back-to-back birdies at 11 and 12. He parred his last six on his first nine, including the Blue Monster, then caught fire after he made the turn.

The South African birdied the par-five first, then holed a long birdie putt from off the green at No. 2. Schwartzel parred three, then returned with a birdie at No. 4.

He missed the green at his last, the par-three ninth, but hit a great chip to three feet. Schwartzel made the putt to save par and stay atop the leaderboard, a familiar place for the 25-year-old.

Schwartzel earned back-to-back victories earlier this year at the Africa Open and Joburg Open on the European Tour. He tied for ninth at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship and is third on that tour's Race to Dubai.

"I've started off the year so good and I couldn't have asked for any better," said Schwartzel. "I've got a lot of confidence with the way I'm playing right now, I'm striking the ball well, and you know, I'm also making a few putts, which is all adds up to good golf.

"I played a lot of good rounds in my career, and yeah, this one rates right up there."

Defending champion Phil Mickelson carded a one-under 71 and is part of a group tied for 17th place.

"I'm happy with 71," said Mickelson. "I know it's not in contention yet, but my goal was to shoot something as solid as I did today, and improve on it each day."

NOTES: Due to Friday afternoon rain on the horizon, officials moved up second- round tee times. The first group off on Friday will now be at 8:00 a.m. (ET) with times running through 9:55 a.m. The groups will remain the same with threesomes going off the first and 10th tees...The only two players qualified for this week that aren't in the field are Tiger Woods, who is still on an indefinite leave, and Ryo Ishikawa, who is graduating from high school in Japan...This is the second WGC event of the year. Ian Poulter won the WGC- Accenture Match Play Championship and had an even-par 72 on Thursday.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.

How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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